Votes for Survival by Simeon Nichter

Author:Simeon Nichter [Nichter, Simeon]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Published: 2018-09-11T18:00:00+00:00

5.6SUMMARY

Substantial vulnerability spurs many citizens to buttress the stability of their ongoing exchange relationships with politicians. This chapter examined how declared support enables many Brazilians to mitigate a key challenge facing relational clientelism. Electronic voting and other factors discussed in Chapter 2 inhibit politicians from monitoring vote choices, exacerbating their concerns about whether clients will follow through on promises to provide political support. Through the mechanism of declared support, citizens are able to allay politicians’ concerns about opportunistic defection by displaying political paraphernalia on their bodies, on their homes, and at rallies. The signaling model in Chapter 3 suggests that by declaring support, citizens can transmit meaningful information about whether their vote promises are credible. Both qualitative and quantitative evidence in the present chapter corroborates this theoretical logic.

Many Brazilians publicly declare their political support through displays of campaign paraphernalia. These declarations are not only prevalent, but also increase during droughts, consistent with the argument that vulnerability motivates citizens to undertake actions that reinforce relational clientelism. Although citizens have multifaceted reasons for declaring support, substantial evidence points to a robust link between this phenomenon and relational clientelism. Two original surveys and many interviews with citizens and elites reveal widespread perceptions that declaring for a victorious candidate can increase citizens’ receipt of post-election benefits. In concordance with these perceptions, regression analyses suggest that declared supporters of elected politicians are indeed more likely to receive benefits that extend beyond campaigns. In line with the signaling model, declared support transmits a highly informative signal of whether citizens in ongoing exchange relationships will follow through on their vote promises. Evidence suggests that citizens overwhelmingly vote and hold perceptions in accordance with their declarations.

Thus, declared support is an important mechanism by which citizens in ongoing exchange relationships can alleviate politicians’ concerns about their trustworthiness. But another credibility problem also threatens the viability of relational clientelism. How can citizens assess whether an entrusted politician will actually follow through on promises of assistance during adverse shocks? The next chapter investigates another mechanism – requesting benefits – by which citizens glean information about politicians’ trustworthiness and thereby further enhance the survival of relational clientelism.

1Author’s interview, municipality in Bahia with 100,000 citizens (December 18, 2008).

2This question had 2,509 respondents. In the Center-West region, 32.5 percent declared support.

3This question had 1,180 respondents. In the Center-West region, 31.5 percent declared support.

4To the best of my knowledge, no national survey in Brazil inquires about both declared support and clientelism. For instance, ESEB and LAPOP studies do not inquire about both topics in the same surveys. As discussed later, to gather such national data, I fielded an online survey across Brazil in collaboration with Salvatore Nunnari.

5For figures in this paragraph, the number of observations ranges from 3,643 to 3,674.

6In 2012, various municipalities forbade campaigns from painting walls for citizens; national law permitted a 4m2 painting. In 2015, Law 13165 prohibited all campaigns from using paint.

7Approximately 41.3 percent of respondents attended a rally; however, mere rally attendance is not considered a form of declared support.

8Similarly,

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